Parlay is bet on two or more events what are not interconnected. For win bet it's necessary that all wagers were correct. At the same time the all bet's odds are multiplied. Events, where stakes return, are excluded from parlay.
The great disadvantage of parlay is that one event fail and parlay is lost, even if all other events were correct. A positive aspect of parlay is opportunity for bettor to bet low amount of money and win big amount, if all predictions are correct.
Some statistics of parlay betting based on long-term observation.
- More than 80% of all players are betting parlay.
- The average ratio of parlay is about 7 on decimal. It means, that bettors are trying to win the money on six times greater than the bet.
- The average odds of parlay's event near 1.4.
- More than 90% of parlays are lost. This figure may vary depending on number of sensations for game day, week or month.
- As a rule, parlays include of 70% of the popular sports events which make up less than 1% of entire line.
And what is even more banal is the fact that parlays are very similar to each other, because bettors add bets on favorites in parlay, that is for championship leaders.
Sometimes happens that parlay wins with 1000 rate, but it happens very, very rarely.
Let's look at an example, take a simple parlay included three events.
We get total ratio 2.79. If you put $100 and all events are correct, then eventually you can pick up 279 dollars. It's tempting, you may bet and win, but actually betting this way, you will lose your money.
Why is that?
Let's analyze some deeper. As I wrote in previous article, where explained in details about mistake sport betting on low odds, that every event has a probability of occurrence. Bookmakers, when provide a line, take away their margin and understate the lower odds, but increase higher odds, in order to make attractive betting on less likely tips and thus to balance line.
If we start from the probability of three events, they will look something like this: England victory 1.38, John Izner victory 1.7 and Cleveland victory 1.52. If we multiply ratios, we get 3.57. The difference is 28%. It means you win on average 35 parlays of hundred.
Placed hundred parlays with hundred dollars each we get revenue of $100 * 100 * 2.79/3.57 = 7815 dollars. You lose $ 2185.
In this example, we have considered parley with three peaks and total ratio of 2.79. In fact, bettors bet longer parlay with higher total ratio. Therefore, the total loss of parlay sport betting will be more significant.
How many bets you add to parlay then difference will be greater between probability and calculated ratio, the bigger loss you'll get. Sometimes you'll win, but the loss will grow up.
You may say that better to add bets in parlay with high odds, but it will remind catch two birds in the bush. A series of losses can be very long, you may start to make mistakes and ultimately lose a lot of money.
So that second error of many bettors is Parlay betting.