Why do bettors lose money? They have an access to great amount of information about upcoming matches: statistics, situation in the team, weather forecast, the opinion of experts. But the financial result is also negative.
It's important to always remember that any betting strategy has both: positive and negative aspects. Unfortunately, there is no betting strategy what may guarantee you permanent profit. Maybe someone can win money by using a specific strategy sport betting, but it may not work to every bettors.
In order to become a successful Capper, you need to minimize the number of errors in betting, because they are reason why bettors lose money. Therefore, the first of all, it's necessary to focus on the common mistakes, because of which people lose money to bookmakers. These errors are causes of financial failures sport betting systems, even those that other bettors are using successfully.
Many of you have experience of sport betting, some just started to bet and think that it's easy money. I think everyone would be useful to know, even if you don't agree with me now. Especially it will be useful to those who make their first steps in betting on sporting events.
Today you'll know about one of the errors, what is more typical for beginners.
The first mistake of most bettors is betting on low odds.
Some of you will say that to bet on the stronger team is more justified than against it, because high probability of stake winning. Yes, I agree, maybe you win money several times, but in the long period you will find yourself in the red. If events with low odds always become correct, I think bookmakers have already been bankrupted. But they work with high profit.
The psychology of player who wants to bet money, especially great amount, always tends to get his money back with a win safely. So, bookmakers when calculate probability of sport's event outcome and provide lines, they usually understate a lower ratio of calculation according to probability.
Perhaps you not quite understand, I will give an example that will help you understand why it is.
For example, a football match of Spain Championship, League BBVA, between Barcelona and Espanyol. The odd for victory of Barcelona 1.04, draw 17 and the victory of Espanyol 41. If we look to probabilities of outcomes, they will look something like this.
The probability of 92% - Barcelona victory, 5% - a draw and only 3% - a victory of Espanyol. Based to probability, the odds should be: 1.09 - Barcelona victory, 20 - draw and 33 of Espanyol victory.
The probability of an outcome is calculated on statistical data and current factors (motivation for team, fatigue, number of injured and other reasons). Bookies use a huge number of factors, in order to correctly calculate the odds and to balance line.
If you place hundred stakes of $100 each on such event, the number of wins and losses will be roughly approximate to average statistic indicator. It's very good if you win the first bet, second, third and then you lose. But you may lose the first bet, then a second, maybe third. How many times have you need to win bets for returning back lost money.... In this case, a minus will approximately 432 dollars.
The ratio probability of outcomes doesn't include commission profit of bookmaker, the average size of which is about 4%. If we take away bookie's margin, the odds should be as follows. Barcelona's victory 1.07, draw 15 and 26 for Espanyol victory.
But, as we see in reality, the odd for Barcelona victory is lower as compared with calculated on probability, considering the bookmaker's margin.
This situation because more than 98% bets will be placed for Barcelona victory and bookmaker's risk to get loss is growing up. Therefore, to balance getting bets, the bookmakers decrease odds for Barcelona victory and increase for draw and Espanyol victory.
Bookies don't like to risk, their task is to make line what will attract players to bet on all odds proportionally of probability and without risk to earn a percentage of turnover. Therefore, they will always decrease the odds on events with higher probability and raise rates on events with lower probability.
You may agree or disagree with me, but betting on low odds will lead you to losses. I know many players who eventually lost a lot of money because of this. Link for video is http://youtu.be/XceRHxPofnU.